2 minute read, 9 minute video on LinkedIn here
Is it me or have counteroffers been at an all time high this year? Our team tends to think so. And our clients do, too.
It’s not surprising. In the sectors we work in, it’s the most competitive hiring environment I’ve ever seen (no hyperbole). So of course companies are going to do whatever they can to keep people.
If you’ve been around this industry for a while, you’ve heard a lot of horror stories. My first manager assured me “90% of people who accept counter offers leave in 6 months!” It wasn’t just him - people at other firms shared similar numbers.
But it’s nonsense. There has never been any meaningful data to support this. I’ve talked to too many people who have taken counter and everything worked out just fine.
Matt Tokarz and I decided to peel back the layers. Turns out, getting reasonably accurate data on counteroffers isn’t that hard.
(Click to view ☝️)
The polling-for-dummies methodology:
Ask narrow questions
You’re allowed 4 options
1 of those options has to be a “throw away” vote. Otherwise people who aren’t qualified (i.e. never took a counteroffer) will invalidate the results. This is social media: people are gonna click on something no matter what.
Subtract that from the totals. Do some basic math. Bam: reasonably accurate results.
Poll #1: of the 1135 people who took a counteroffer, only 30% left within 6 months (not 90%). (Here.)
But tenure doesn’t tell the real story. Maybe people who left in a few months were still happy they took it. Or maybe people who took a counter and stayed several years regretted it. Isn’t satisfaction all that really matters?
Poll #2: of the 344 who had an opinion, 60% said staying was a mistake. 40% say it was a good decision. (Here.)
What can we pull from this?
Recruiters need to acknowledge reality. Counteroffers are bad for recruiters. But they aren’t necessarily bad for job seekers. You don’t have to like it, but it undercuts your credibility (and frankly, the entire industry’s credibility) when you fudge the numbers.
A 60:40 split is a coin flip. It’s case by case. Sure, maybe the trust is gone and the bridge is burned. But maybe their manager legitimately didn’t realize they were unhappy?
Everybody’s human. Employees get frustrated. Managers miss things. That doesn’t mean it’s irreparably broken.
As for the people you’re recruiting: empathize. Would you take that counter offer if you were them? No? Then maybe a heart to heart is in order.
But if you would? Keep the search going. Onto the next one...
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